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Option Activity Alert: McDonald's Corporation Could Face Call-Related Pressure
Heavy accumulations of call open interest at the 60 strike could stymie the stock
by Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)11/3/2009 2:00:44 PM
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Call options on McDonald's Corporation are quickly gaining popularity. On Monday, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 1,857 calls on the fast food firm, compared to just 140 puts. The stock's single-day call/put volume ratio arrived at 13.26, revealing a distinct preference for bullishly oriented options.

MCD SOIRFrom a longer-term perspective, MCD's 10-day ISE call/put volume ratio stands at 2.50, as calls bought to open have more than doubled puts during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 92% of comparable readings taken within the previous year, suggesting that traders on this exchange have rarely purchased calls over puts at a faster pace.

With more and more speculators boarding the bullish bandwagon, MCD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) has backpedaled from its Oct. 19 post-expiration peak of 1.44, which hovered within two percentage points of a 52-week high. Today, the stock's SOIR checks in at 1.31, in the 83rd annual percentile, as traders have added more calls than puts to near-term open interest during the past couple of weeks.

In the front-month series, call players have zeroed in on MCD's 60 strike. This narrowly out-of-the-money option is home to peak call open interest of 25,863 contracts. The 60 strike also holds sway in the December and January 2010 series, with open interest of 24,232 contracts and 27,013 contracts, respectively.

MCD open interestMeanwhile, the most popular November-dated put is the 55 strike, which is several points out of the money. This strike has just 8,208 contracts open, highlighting the preference for calls over puts among near-term options. Put players have set their sights even lower in the December series, where the 52.50 strike has 32,002 contracts in residence.

However, the recent flood of call activity comes with a substantial caveat. Short interest on MCD has jumped by 23.2% during the past month, with the number of shares sold short surging by 22.8% during just the most recent reporting period. In this context, it's possible that bearish speculators are hedging their bets by purchasing long calls.

On the charts, MCD has been a notable underperformer on the Dow this year. While the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up 11.3% year-to-date, MCD has shed nearly 5% of its value in 2009. This disappointing price action puts the restaurant chain in an unpleasantly exclusive group -- only nine of the Dow's 30 members are in negative territory for the year.

In fairness, MCD has recently reclaimed support from its 10-month and 20-month moving averages, after a lengthy struggle that saw the stock finish three consecutive months below these trendlines earlier this year. These long-term moving averages could now resume their role as technical support.

Monthly Chart of MCD since March 2003 With 10-Month and 20-Month Moving Averages

However, stubborn resistance at the $60 level cannot be ignored. Despite multiple challenges of this round-number region, MCD hasn't managed a weekly finish atop $60 since early January. This is especially troubling in light of the heavy accumulations of overhead call open interest the stock is facing in the November, December, and January series of options. With so many calls lingering at these out-of-the-money 60 strikes, chances seem good that MCD will encounter options-related resistance during the short-to-intermediate term.

Weekly Chart of MCD since August 2008

Overall, the security's stagnant price action -- combined with the recent glut of bullish speculation in the options pits -- raises some red flags from a contrarian perspective. Even if many of those 60-strike calls were simply purchased to hedge short stock positions, they could nevertheless exert pressure on the equity as expiration approaches. During the short term, MCD seems destined to keep flat-lining beneath familiar resistance.



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