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Option Activity Alert: Alcoa Inc. Could Be Pinned by Out-of-the-Money Calls
The aluminum giant is staring up at heavy call open interest in the November series
by Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)11/6/2009 12:20:05 PM
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Call volume has easily outpaced put activity on Alcoa Inc. recently. During the past five days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) bought to open 33,463 calls on AA, compared to just 2,713 puts. The stock's five-day ISE call/put volume ratio stands at 12.33, as traders have picked up more than a dozen calls for every put on AA during the previous week.

AA SOIRAs a result, AA's 10-day ISE call/put volume ratio is moving into bullish territory. The current ratio of 2.13 reveals that calls bought to open have more than doubled puts within the past two weeks, and it ranks higher than 63% of other such readings taken during the past year. This elevated percentile rank reveals that speculators are currently purchasing calls over puts at a faster pace than usual.

Along these same bullish lines, AA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) arrived today at 0.40, with calls more than doubling puts among options set to expire within three months. This ratio is resting just eight percentage points from an annual low, indicating that short-term option traders have rarely been more bullishly aligned toward the aluminum giant.

In the front-month series, peak call open interest consists of 29,863 contracts at the November 15 strike. However, there are hefty call accumulations at neighboring strikes, as well: the November 17 has 22,047 calls outstanding; the November 14 strike carries open interest of 21,945 calls, and the November 16 call has 20,544 contracts in residence.

AA short interestMeanwhile, peak put open interest for the series can be found at the November 13 strike, which carries 16,415 contracts. Not far behind is the November 12 put, which is home to 13,363 contracts. AA is currently trading near $13 per share, which means that call players are favoring out-of-the-money options, while put traders prefer less ambitious bets. This configuration underscores the heavy-handed bullish sentiment revealed by the stock's recent option volume.

During the short term, the preponderance of calls at out-of-the-money strikes could serve to keep AA pinned on the charts. As expiration draws closer, the unwinding of hedges related to this open interest could serve as a headwind, keeping the shares stifled near their current trading range.

Of course, this might not be unwelcome news for the stock's call players, as it seems that some of these contracts might have been picked up to hedge short stock positions. Short interest on AA jumped by 16.2% during the past month, and now accounts for nearly 8% of the equity's float. With buy-to-open call volume rising in tandem with short interest, the possibility is strong that some of these calls were simply purchased as hedges against an unexpected rally.

From a technical perspective, AA is faring respectably well on the charts. The shares have added 14.5% in 2009, and they're up 25.6% during the past 52 weeks. However, the security's momentum has lagged the bulk of the broader equities market lately, with AA sporting a 20-day relative-strength reading of just 90.9% versus the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX).

The stock's recent pullback was contained by support at its 20-week moving average, which hasn't been breached on a weekly closing basis since early April. This trendline, in conjunction with its 10-week counterpart, has provided reliable support for AA throughout the bulk of the calendar year.

Weekly Chart of AA since March 2009 With 10-Week and 20-Week Moving Averages

On the other hand, the $15 neighborhood could be a formidable resistance level. This formerly supportive area capped the equity's progress in September and October, and AA's annual high stands at $15.11. Plus, with so much call open interest lingering at the November 15 strike, options-related resistance should also be a factor during the short term.

Monthly Chart of AA since August 1997

With AA hovering between reliable support and stubborn resistance, the shares could very well remain range-bound during the near term. Traders might want to consider strategies that capitalize on this stagnation, such as credit spreads or short strangles.



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